Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

02:12 - Ed’s approach to copywriting

04:02 - The problems with Google’s forecasting tools

08:39 - Accounting for seasonality in forecasting

14:32 - Why impression share is important

17:55 - Accounting for Remarketing

21:00 - Should you exclude brand from PMax?

22:45 - PMax or Standard Shopping?

24:41 - Will AI invalidate forecasting?

27:34 - Putting the work in

29:32 - Final thoughts

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Overview:

Get Ed's forecasting spreadsheet here: https://edleake.com/google-ads-forecasting-tool/

And watch his video explaining the spreadsheet in more detail: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ta5fIi0qbHw

In the final episode of Season 2 of the Paid Media Lab podcast, we speak to Ed Leake - founder of God Tier Ads, seasoned agency owner, and PPC expert with over half a billion in managed ad spend - to uncover the biggest mistakes marketers make when forecasting Google Ads performance, and how to do it right.

With nearly two decades of experience in paid media, ad tech, and conversion strategy, Ed shares his hard-earned insights on why most forecasts fail, how to build projections that align with real business outcomes, and what every advertiser should know about scaling spend without killing ROAS.

Whether you’re pitching new clients, planning Q4 budgets, or trying to get a grip on Google’s automation and Performance Max chaos, this episode is packed with straight-talking advice that cuts through the noise.

🎯 Key topics:

• Why Google’s built-in forecasting tools often miss the mark
• How to forecast with business outcomes - not just ad metrics
• Accounting for seasonality & demand curves the smart way
• The hidden impact of impression share on CPC and performance
• Why Standard Shopping still matters (yes, really)
• Forecasting in an AI-driven, keywordless PPC future